New issues cost Pacers vs Heat, but Aaron Nesmith returns and the big 3 clicks
The Pacers were great for 35 minutes in Miami. The last 13, however...
MY TEMPORARY OFFICE, Ind. – Three pretty good quarters and a truly awful one. That's how the Indiana Pacers lost to the Miami Heat on Saturday night. How many games does that apply to for these Pacers recently?
Boston, the day prior? Yep. New Orleans, one week ago? You bet. In Philly, just after the first portion of the NBA Cup break? The same story. You've seen it, thought about it, and read about it.
Three recent disaster quarters for the Pacers have all looked the same. In the first period against the Pelicans last weekend, the Pacers gave up 44 points and were down 17 early. They lost by 19. A week later, they gave up 47 points in the second frame versus the Celtics, losing that quarter by 25. The final margin was 18. This time, against Miami, the dreadful stretch of play came in the final 12 (ok, 13) minutes as the Heat ran away with the win during the fourth quarter.
Tony East
With one minute on the clock in the third quarter, the Pacers were ahead in South Beach. It was 94-92 at the time with many of the Pacers best players turning in a quality outing to that point. The Heat scored the final six points of the period and took a 98-94 lead into the fourth.
On a night in which Pascal Siakam, Bennedict Mathurin, and Andrew Nembhard all had something going, a four-point margin felt more than manageable. It seemed like the Pacers had a chance to win. Instead, their atrocious quarter arrived in the fourth, and it once again was due to their defense.
The Heat, who were behind by two moments earlier, were up by 10 after about three minutes of fourth quarter play and up 16 two minutes later. Their lead reached 20 less than eight minutes into the final frame at 133-112 – a 41-18 Miami run took place in about nine minutes.
"Good things for three quarters. Rough ending to the third. And then the fourth was obviously very poor," Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle said postgame. "Gotta do better."
Indeed, they do. The final 13 minutes of Pacers-Heat? 50-22 in favor of Miami. The first 35 minutes? 94-92 Pacers. It's the story of the last few weeks for the blue and gold, and the line between inconsistent and bad keeps fading.
50 points allowed in 13 minutes is shocking stuff. Miami scored just 59 points in the entire first half, with starting big man Jay Huff pointed to the team's defense as being a major factor in the Pacers halftime lead. It was leading to good offense, too.
"Our defense starts it all," Huff said during his halftime interview on the FanDuel Sports Indiana broadcast of the game. "The way we move after getting stops."
That feedback loop was referenced after Pacers-Celtics, too. Pacers players were equally dismayed by their offense and defense that night. The connection between the two ends of the floor is undeniable, and that connection went away late in Pacers-Heat. It ultimately cost the Pacers the game.
That isn't new. What is new? The turnovers. The Pacers left Miami with a shocking 26 in total, a nearly insurmountable number for a team's chances at winning. The Heat won the points off turnovers battle 38-19.
While there are many things the Pacers have struggled with this season, turnovers haven't been one of them. Even after a horrible game in Miami, they rank top 10 in fewest turnovers per game. They had only lost over 20 turnovers in one game twice before Saturday.
Then... they coughed up 26. Yuck. Siakam, Nembhard, Mathurin, Jarace Walker, Quenton Jackson, and Ethan Thompson all had at least three. There was no care taken.
26 turnovers is obviously a season high. The last time the Pacers had 26+ was on January 12, 2024. Before that? April 14... 2013. Entering Saturday, the Pacers had just two games with 26+ turnovers in the last 16 years.
Now they have three. The Heat finished the outing with 14 more field goal attempts and five more free throw attempts. Their efficiency advantage on shots was fairly small, but with that volume difference they blew out the Pacers.
"We're going to have to do better putting together 48 minutes," Carlisle said postgame.
Indeed, they do. That's eight-straight losses for the Pacers, which sounds bad but has already happened this season. Nine in a row? The Pacers avoided that by beating Charlotte on November 19. Can they do the same against Houston tonight? Not without way fewer turnovers and much better defense. But it's been a new problem every night for this team of late.
Aaron Nesmith is back
After a 19-game absence due to a knee injury suffered in mid-November, Aaron Nesmith returned to the hardwood in Miami. Not that he was trending toward any hardware, but Nesmith is now ineligible for most league awards due to missed games.
The Pacers will be thrilled that he is back, mostly just so they can learn more about their team and new players. Carlisle can now tinker with lineups, use Nesmith with some recent signees, and at least see closer to what the true level of this team could have been.
Nesmith played 19:12 off the bench, drilling three outside shots and finishing with nine points, five rebounds, and two blocks. On his first defensive rep of the game, he slowed down Jaime Jacquez in a way very few Pacers players could throughout the night. Even with a ghastly +/- (I say not his fault), it was clear Nesmith had a big impact on the game.
I don't think it will be long before Nesmith starts again. Adding outside shooting and defense can only help the Pacers. Finally, at least for now, the team's health situation is trending in the right direction.
The big three, all good
Blowouts typically don't get remembered for good things that happen, so allow me to make sure that everyone remembers how spectacular Siakam was in the first half of this game.
The Heat were determined to switch basically everything in the first half. Against most Pacers players, that worked. Against Siakam, it created constant mismatches that only benefitted the Pacers.
Siakam was hot in the first half, shooting 10/13 from the field on his way to 24 points. He drilled four threes. During his absolute hottest scoring stretch, there are few vets I find more enjoyable to watch. Siakam can score from legitimately anywhere in a way that is rare in 2025.
"He's been great," Huff said of Siakam at halftime.
At that moment, Nembhard had two points on 1/9 shooting (but 10 assists!) and Mathurin had two points on 1/5 shooting. They were off. But in the second half, Miami changed their defensive plan. More double teams and zone defenses were deployed to slow Siakam, and that opened the floor for others.
Mathurin and Nembhard took advantage. They both found their stroke in the second half – Nembhard went 6/8 and had 13 points while Mathurin was an impossible cover as he had 23 points on 8/11 shooting. Siakam still went 4/8 in the half, but the attention he demanded flipped the game for other guards.
In the end, the Siakam-Nembhard-Mathurin trio combined for 73 points, 16 rebounds, and 23 assists. Pretty good, if you ask me. No other player reached 12 points for the Pacers.
Uncharted (charted, I suppose) territory
I fell behind tracking this, so allow me to include something here. The 1984-85 Cleveland Cavaliers have been a common reference point for me personally with this Pacers team. That Cavs group started 2-19 before recovering for a 36-46 finish and making the postseason.
It's basically the worst start in modern NBA history for a team that still made the playoffs. The 2021-22 Pelicans, for another example, started 2-14 before also winning 36 games, then making the postseason field via the play-in tournament.
Both of those teams surged after those slow starts. After 29 games, that Pelicans squad was 8-21 while the Cavs were 6-23 – the same mark the current Pacers had at that moment.
Cleveland went on to win their 30th (and 31st and 32nd) games. All that to say... the Pacers are now in uncharted territory: no team has EVER started 6-24 or worse and made the postseason. Do whatever you'd like with that information.
The Pacers will look to recover with their new health in Houston on Monday night. I find the Rockets to be about as difficult of a stylistic matchup there could be for these Pacers, so I am looking forward to seeing how the improving-health group responds after their collapse in Miami.
Thank you for reading. I apologize for the slower rhythm of these stories during the Holiday week – my house was filled with family (it was lovely) for eight-straight days. That stretch has ended, so subscribe for timely reporting on the Pacers upcoming stretch, Fever news, and more.
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