Pacers drop one possession game again behind one terrible run vs Raptors

MY KITCHEN TABLE, Ind. – It happens fast for the Indiana Pacers. One moment, they're tied at 43 with the Detroit Pistons. The next moment, specifically 5:42 of action later, they're down 19 at 49-68. Two days pass and they're up 49-38 against the Toronto Raptors with 3:47 until halftime.

By the break, the Pacers were losing. It was a 12-0 Raptors run at that point. Less than three minutes into the third quarter, Toronto led by 11 at 60-49. It took 6:42 for the Raptors to go on a 22-0 run.

The Pacers ended that surge with a free throw via Pascal Siakam, then Isaiah Jackson dunked on the next trip. In total, the Pacers went 8:11 without a made shot and nearly as long without any points. The game completely flipped.

“Our defense broke down in the half court," Pacers assistant coach Jim Boylen said of the final three minutes of the first half during an interview on the FanDuel Sports Indiana broadcast of the game. "We had a good half defensively, but... we’ve got to keep playing our game.”

With 3:28 to go in the third quarter, the Pacers trailed 74-62. So over a 12:25 stretch, they were outscored 36-14. Both the 36 and the 14 are awful numbers for a period that spanned just over one quarter of game action, and it sank the Pacers.

Across the other 35:35 of playing time, the Pacers were much better than the Raptors. They outscored Toronto 81-61 outside of that dreadful one stretch. But the Pacers' lowest sequence was so poor that controlling the rest of the game wasn't enough to win. Despite a mostly-good outing against a red-hot team, the Pacers fell to 2-16.

“We’re right where we need to be on the road. We’ve got to make some shots and we’ve got to get some stops," Boylen said of the upcoming half after the second quarter. The Pacers did that more often than not, but they were so bad in the not stretches that they still came up short.

The same reality was true in Pacers-Pistons on Monday, as noted above. For 42:18 of that battle, Indiana outscored Detroit 111-97. The game was only 48 minutes long, yet the Pacers still fell in that outing. It's a huge issue.

It was a commonly-asked question after the Pacers lost on Monday: what is actually happening in these runs? Why are they so frequent and so damaging?

"I feel like it always starts with our defense," Jarace Walker said of the pathetic runs. "Just gotta defend at a high level no matter what's happening on the offensive side. Just let that defense carry up, even when we're not scoring."

"I think our margins are really small," added Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. "So I think we just have to fix some of those little things that lead to being down by 12, 14, 15 in certain moments. Because we have great stretches where we come back in games."

Right now, this is the Pacers biggest concern. They were struggling with dreadful third quarters earlier this season for a similar reason, but they weren't playing well enough to win at the time. Now, they are doing enough to actually beat teams – that is, outside of some truly terrible runs in their last two games. They need to clean it up.

Other notes from Pacers-Raptors

Brandon Ingram, at the buzzer

Even despite the Pacers dreadful 12-ish minutes of play, they were in position to snag their first road win of the season on Wednesday. They were winning in the fourth quarter, with the edge reaching three at times in the period.

With 4:44 left in the game, the Pacers were up 90-87. The game was within one possession the rest of the way, with the Pacers tying the game at 91, 93, and 95, the final number coming with less than 100 seconds to go.

That set up an epic finish. The Pacers had possession with under 30 seconds left in a tie game and could have taken the lead. Siakam had the ball in an isolation at the top of the key and made his move. Then, this sequence took place.

It was one of the calmest game winners I can recall. Poeltl's block was impressive, Ingram's shot even more so. Siakam did well to get free around Quickley but couldn't find an opening after doing so. Playing with five fouls made defending Ingram tough. That was the game.

It's the second time this season the Pacers have fallen thanks to a (near) buzzer beater in a tie game – Giannis Antetokounmpo hit a game winner earlier this month. Those two shots, plus Aaron Nesmith's miss at the buzzer in Dallas and a Pacers-Thunder double overtime game filled with epic moments, all have been painful for the Pacers. Four times, they've had a chance to win from one play. Four times, they've lost.

Clutch stats are imperfect, but the Pacers seven losses in clutch games is the second most in the NBA. Their one win (against Golden State) puts them above only the Charlotte Hornets. Dramatic games are fun, but the results haven't been for the Pacers.

Ben Sheppard made two outside shots

A player making two three-point shots shouldn't merit its own subhead in a story, but Ben Sheppard does. He went 2/4 from deep in Toronto, with both makes being a part of the Pacers second-half comeback, finally producing during a rough stretch of jump shooting.

Sheppard entered the game two for his last 20 from deep and hadn't made more than one triple in a game since November 13 despite taking at least three every outing. He has now made multiple outside shots four times this season.

It's been a horrible start to the campaign for Sheppard's jumper. He's at 21.3% from deep this season as of this writing, and he entered the outing in Toronto below at 19.7%. Below 20%, oof. That's tough for a guy who could really shoot it in college and has made threes in the playoffs, but he cannot find any consistency with his jumper in the regular season.

Only 13 players in NBA history have taken more than four three-point attempts per game yet made under 22% of them in a season (four of them are happening this year, nine prior to this season). Sheppard is currently a part of that group. Of those 13 players, 12 of them (including Sheppard right now) played 18 games or fewer during the season. It's reasonable to assume that the young guard, who is still over 30% for his career, will bounce back in some ways.

But as Jalen Suggs showed in 2021-22 (21.5% on 4.1 threes attempted per game across 48 appearances) maybe he won't. So any game in which Sheppard gets going a little bit is noteworthy.

The Pacers will, of course, hope this sticks. It would give them another weapon that could help them prevent dramatic runs from sinking them almost every night.

Thank you for reading. Happy Thanksgiving. Stories from Pacers-Wizards and Pacers-Bulls to come this weekend. Sign up so they are sent directly to you!

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