The Pacers loss in Dallas continues a trend: They have to make some shots

MY KITCHEN COUNTER, Ind. – Aaron Nesmith had a great look at it, but missed. He was wide open at the buzzer in the Pacers 107-105 loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday, but his three-point shot from the right wing was just short. Ballgame.

That dropped the Pacers to 0-4, a reality they've only been in once before – the 1988-89 season. That year, they had four head coaches and started 0-9. Oof. It has obviously not been a good start for Indiana, and that final shot in Dallas perfectly demonstrates the reason why.

They can't make shots.

In Dallas, that was obvious. They shot 34.9% from the field on all attempts, marking just the 70th time in Pacers history they failed to hit 35% of their field goals in a game. They are now 4-66 in those games. And they were a ghastly 18/28 from the foul line, too. They left points on the table.

Breaking down many games requires nuance. Here's the player that struggled and why. This thing went well or didn't. There are endless reasons an NBA team wins or loses a game. In this case, however, little nuance is required. The Pacers just missed everything. It's almost impossible to overcome that, as their record in such games shows.

50 of their 105 points against the Mavericks came in the first 18 minutes of action. Then, 55 in the final 30 minutes. "Our pace in the first half was tremendous," assistant coach Johnny Carpenter said on the Fanduel Sports Indiana broadcast of the game during a halftime interview. It was, and it was aided by 12 first-half turnovers for Dallas. They had just seven in the second half. Easier shots went away and the Pacers offense died.

In 2024-25, the Pacers shot 44% or better in 70 of their 82 games. This season, they have yet to hit that accuracy mark once. It would be easy to say that injuries, especially at point guard, are hurting the Pacers shot quality. In some ways, that is true. In others, though, they're just off on their shots.

Last season, for example, the Pacers were without Tyrese Haliburton nine times. In five of those games, they made more than 44% of their total shots. One of the other four was the rest-tastic season finale in Cleveland in which basically no rotation players played. The other three, the Pacers struggled, but even in the worst of those three they made 39.6% of all shots (40/101 in a 121-103 loss to the Chicago Bulls on March 10 of this year).

So Wednesday's 34.9% performance was something else. Two seasons ago, when the Pacers reached the Eastern Conference Finals, they didn't have a single game under 40%. Their last outing before the loss in Dallas in which they shot under 35% was April 19, 2021. Nate Bjorkgren was the head coach. The Pacers started Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, Edmond Sumner, Oshae Brissett, and Goga Bitadze that night.

It had been a while. It happens, sure, but saying injuries or newer lineups caused the Pacers offense to shrink on Wednesday is not true. They just stunk in a game that was otherwise winnable.

It was a uniquely-awful game. Yet it continues a trend from the Pacers start to the season. From the first calendar day of this NBA season through Wednesday, the Pacers rank 29th in field goal percentage. If the blue and gold had missed just one more shot to that point in the season, they would be in last. (Shoutout to the New Orleans Pelicans. What the hell are they even doing? That Pacers mid-finals trade with New Orleans was seriously franchise-altering.)

Mind you, the Pacers ranked third in field goal percentage last season. They don't have Haliburton this season, so an elite shot-making season shouldn't be expected. I actually predicted the Pacers would be better on defense than offense this year. But not like this.

Despite showing some toward-the-rim pop, Ben Sheppard is shooting a career-low 34.3% so far. Ol' reliable Nesmith, a 50-40-90 finisher last season, has knocked down 29.4% of his shot attempts this year – he was 2/16 in Dallas (Nesmith's previous fewest makes in a game in which he took at least 16 shots: six). RayJ Dennis, someone that I think is playing pretty well, has a field goal percentage of 38.7%. Pascal Siakam, who is seeing double teams like crazy and has been largely ballin', is at a career-low 44% from the field.

I could keep going. Go look up Obi Toppin's three-point percentage – it's below 20%. Jarace Walker is shooting below 30% on all shots like Nesmith. Jay Huff, 40% career three-point shooter entering the season, is 3/12 this year. It's everyone. It has been contagious.

My favorite (because of its insanity, not because it's an enjoyable thing to watch): Nesmith was 73/80 at the foul line last season. My memory is him making every clutch free throw last season. He missed seven of them in 45 games. This year? He's 2/7 in four outings.

I mean, come on. That speaks to how outlier-ish this all is. They will regress to the mean, in a good way, but four losses is four losses. So, yes, the Pacers are injured. But they're missing more shots than expected even given their health. It's basketball at the simplest level: the Pacers must score to win. They aren't.

Other notes from Pacers-Mavs:

Mac McClung makes his Pacers debut

As approached here, I've seen Mac McClung absolutely ball out in the G League. He cooked the Mad Ants in the playoffs last year. I also can see Basketball Reference and see that he's played in six NBA games total prior to signing with the Pacers – I think I've watched one of them start to finish. Predicting his success was tricky.

His debut provided some optimism. The rubric for grading his performance, to me, was "Do you look like you've been on the team for one day? Or better?"

The answer was certainly better. Seven points, two boards, an assist, plus two steals and a block. He didn't look out of place at all. The athleticism he's shown in the dunk contest popped on the defensive end, which isn't hard to believe yet isn't what I was expecting (the first clip here is registered as a turnover/steal and maybe shouldn't have been).

If anything close to that level of play can hold, McClung is a solid depth piece to keep around. He won't be in the rotation when the Pacers are healthy – and Taelon Peter as well as Johnny Furphy are getting there – but the team can at least have confidence he belongs on the floor in some capacity if they have to deploy him again. A good start, certainly.

RayJ Dennis is... making a case to start?

RayJ Dennis played 70 minutes in his 11 games as a rookie with the Pacers. He's played 85 in three games this year. The team keeps turning to him because, simply, his minutes are going pretty well.

Despite his aforementioned shooting struggles, which largely comes from one poor game in Memphis, Dennis is providing an offensive boost. He's second on the team in total assists (and second in per-minute assists) and keeps dotting threes. Some of his jumpers have been important ones in crunch time.

His defense is mediocre at best, and that's not surprising for someone of his height. But the Pacers net rating is currently nine points per 100 possessions better with Dennis on the floor, most of which comes from the offensive boost he provides.

When he was signed in January to a two-year, two-way deal, the message I got from many within the Pacers is that Dennis makes his teammates better. You could see that with the Mad Ants. He gets things organized and keeps his head up constantly when handling the ball. For a team that doesn't start a nominal point guard right now, maybe they should. And maybe it should be Dennis. I think Quenton Jackson is the better player, but it's hard to ignore how the team has looked with the second-year guard on the floor.

Jarace Walker, good cop bad cop

Jarace Walker's first quarter in Dallas was... perhaps his best stint ever. Eight points, two rebounds, two assists, and some excellent defense. He made plays on both ends and shared notes on his performance during a well-earned spot as the halftime interviewee on the Fanduel Sports Indiana broadcast.

But he finished the game 5/19 from the field, which included a shocking 1/9 on two-point looks. Some of them were rather wild shots. He was 4/10 from deep and took seven foul shots (a career high) while making six of them. That's good. The rim pressure was quite poor.

He had two gorgeous passes into post players where the pass was so precise it actually created an opening to score. He also had some bad misses and a turnover in which he drove and jumped with no plan. It was, and I mean this as a compliment, a complete Jarace Walker game.

He showed the high highs that have fans sometimes begging for him to play more. His offense, to me, has been ahead of his defense during his career so far, but he defended his ass off at times in Dallas while also showing real punch with the ball. He also couldn't create as much as the Pacers needed him to and missed 14 shots. Inconsistent play has followed him for his entire career so far, but that was his peak play so far. He finished with a career-high 20 points. If more of that can happen, that's good news for the Pacers. I think he should continue to start.

But he, and everyone else, has to make some damn shots.

Thank you for reading. I hope you're enjoying Circle City Spin so far. I will be in a wedding over the weekend and won't be able to watch Pacers-Hawks or Pacers-Warriors live. Stories will return here on Sunday. Sign up below to have them sent straight to your inbox.