Top possible lottery odds secured by Pacers after offense stalls against 76ers

INDIANAPOLIS – The constant glances at the standings can end. After the Indiana Pacers fell against the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday night, it's official. The Pacers will end the 2025-26 season with one of the worst three records in the league. They'll have the best possible odds of getting a top-four pick via the NBA Draft lottery in May.

Friday's defeat put the Pacers at 62 losses. The Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz entered that day with 21 wins, an out-of-reach number for the Pacers. That made it official – the Pacers can only finish this season with the second- (or tied for second) worst record in the NBA. If they win Sunday against Detroit, they could end the year even with the Brooklyn Nets.

The Jazz and Kings can't be caught. Losses are no longer important for the Pacers. They're bottom three and have secured the following odds of ending the lottery with the corresponding first-round selection:

1. 14.0%
2. 13.4%
3. 12.7%
4. 12.0%

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The Indiana Pacers and Indiana Fever, up close

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Altogether, that gives them a total percentage of 52.1% to end up in top four after the lottery drawing, which matches the odds of the other two teams that will finish with a bottom-three record.

That's official, too – it will be the Washington Wizards, Pacers, and Nets in the bottom three. It also means the Pacers have nothing to play for in their last game. The protections on their first-round pick mean they don't care about tiebreakers, so nothing changes if they win or lose against Detroit. If the Pacers don't end up with a top-four selection, their first rounder will go to the Los Angeles Clippers.

After the Pacers' bold trade in February, draft lottery positioning had to be a major consideration during the final two months of their season. "We'd like to have a top-four pick," general manager Chad Buchanan told me through a laugh in Brooklyn just after the trade deadline when I asked him what he still thinks the team needs.

Thanks to some rough performances filled with injuries, the Pacers lost enough times to give themselves the highest possible chance of filling that need. A late surge from Sacramento helped in the inverse standings. The Pacers lost 16 games in a row after the All-Star break while other poor teams added a few wins.

Pending Sunday's result, almost every defeat was required to get to this point. But now, the Pacers will finish with either the outright most or, at best, tied for most losses in franchise history. They went 20-62 in 1982-83 before drafting Steve Stipanovich.

"That is something you worry about later. Right now, it's more about the opportunity for the guys. We talked about the health priority yesterday," acting head coach Lloyd Pierce said when I asked him about the Pacers having the best possible lottery odds. "At the end of the day, [the] offseason will be the offseason. There will be a lot of decisions to be made that my paygrade doesn't handle."

That's the team's goal for the final game – make it through healthy. It's against the Pistons on Sunday in Indianapolis for fan appreciation night. Then, a weird offseason will begin.

What happened in the game?

The "how?" of the Pacers loss vs Philadelphia was straightforward – their offense was off. Things felt awkward far too often, and way too many possessions ended with a bad shot or turnover.

For much of the past few weeks, the Pacers offense has been fantastic. They are still ninth in offensive rating across every team's last 11 games. But as injuries mount and lineups change, that was tough to maintain on Friday night. There was no flow to the Pacers operation, and their shooting wasn't where it needed to be.

The math problem that cost the Pacers vs the Timberwolves earlier this week was back. They couldn't make shots or take care of the ball, a death sentence in tandem. The Pacers shot 14/50 from long range and finished the outing shooting 37.5%. They added 21 turnovers (Philly had eight) and were minus six on the offensive glass.

"They're an aggressive individual defensive team... just their activity I thought bothered us early," Pierce said of the offensive struggles. "We were sloppy late. Some crucial turnovers in the fourth quarter, unforced."

Part of the reason the 76ers didn't turn the ball over much is they barely moved it. Philly lived with isolations, and the Pacers handled it pretty well. Tyrese Maxey was terrific, but Pierce still liked the effort his team put into defending the star guard. Other Sixers players struggled – they only scored 105 points in defeat.

The final score was 105-94. Jarace Walker found his three-point shot again and led the Pacers with 17 points. Quenton Jackson and Ethan Thompson both popped. Just one more game for the blue and gold, who will keep their eyes on evaluation and health.

Lloyd Pierce, the head coach

Pierce was the acting head coach for the Pacers on Friday, his second full game of the season. He also got to finish a home game against the Nets in November after Rick Carlisle was ejected and led the team Thursday night in Brooklyn.

Pierce is a former head coach and the Pacers top assistant. He knows the role, and the team, well. It's not anything new to be in charge. "It's great," Pierce said of being a head coach again, even if just for a few days. "It's great when you win, terrible when you lose... I talked about it yesterday. It's a great opportunity for me. It's a great opportunity for everybody in the locker room."

Pierce was managing the game. Assistant Jim Boylen was helping him with the substitution patterns. Jenny Boucek still operated the defense. Some things were similar as the team tried to keep their standard.

Other things were different, though. Beyond Pierce getting bumped up a spot on the bench, others got to take on bigger, more meaningful responsibilities. Johnny Carpenter got to move to the front of the bench while other video and player development coaches were handed more involved roles.

"Got a couple guys filling from my spot, some of our player development guys are doing the offensive game plan," Pierce explained. "One of the other guys is doing personnel before the game today. And this is their first opportunity to do so."

Since the team is, using Pierce's words, a well-oiled machine, it was somewhat seamless to have members of the staff move up in role. But it's still a big shift for some of the coaches, who were handling new assignments for the first time. Pierce told them to learn their voice while handling new tasks.

"Learn your voice. Use the opportunity to work on something you've never done before," Pierce said. He was in charge, but Carlisle's absence benefitted everyone. "But we still do it in the confines of how we do things."

Carlisle will be back for the finale on Sunday. One last game in front of the fans that have supported the team through a very rough season.

Thank you for reading. One more Pacers game story here, then many offseason look aheads and scouting reports. Plus, Fever time. Sign up to not miss any of it.