The Pacers season, gradually then suddenly slipping away
The Pacers season continues to slip away with more losses and injuries.
THE CARMICHAEL HOTEL, Ind. – It was 22-12 in favor of the Pacers on Saturday night about six minutes into their eventual defeat versus the Toronto Raptors. Two days earlier, they were up 13-8 in the opening frame against the Phoenix Suns. They were pummeled that night, too. In the game before that, the Pacers led 10-0, then later 20-10, against the Utah Jazz. I'm sure you can figure out the pattern by now: the Jazz won by 24.
In three straight games, the Pacers have gotten off to a promising start. In three straight games, they have been steamrolled. Despite moving Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Tony Bradley into the starting five before the game vs Utah (and the new starters are +4 in 41 minutes), the Pacers cannot put together a 48-minute game. They can barely put together 12 good minutes.
Recently, it's been far more bad than good. They have lost five-straight games by 17 or more points, marking just the eighth time in NBA history that's happened to any team. Amazingly, the Washington Wizards, who currently sit at the bottom of the league with the Pacers, did it earlier this season. But it's not good company for the blue and gold. They aren't just losing, they're being embarrassed.
Tony East
It reminds me of a quote I adore from The Sun Also Rises by Ernest Hemingway (I have not read the book but have seen the quote in various applications). One of the characters, Mike Campbell, is asked how he went bankrupt.
"Two ways," he answers. "Gradually, then suddenly."
It has dual applications for the current Pacers, to me. It describes their recent defeats well. If someone asked how the Pacers blew a 10-point lead against Toronto or Utah, "gradually, then suddenly," would be an excellent answer.
When playing the Jazz, the Pacers led by 10 with 7:24 on the clock in the first quarter. By the end of the frame, they were trailing. With 8:37 left in the second period, Utah led by five. At halftime, the Jazz were up 13. Gradually, they pulled away.
Suddenly, they were up 26. They won by 24. The Pacers were outscored by 34 points across the final ~43 minutes. Oof.
Hosting Toronto on Saturday, the Pacers put together a similar game. Up 10 with 5:25 to go in the first quarter. Losing by three at the end of the same quarter. Down nine at halftime. Gradually, the Raptors imposed their style.
Then, suddenly, they pulled away. A 9-0 run in under 100 seconds to open the second half put Indiana behind by 18. A timeout didn't stop that run. While the Pacers did put a dent in this lead, they were down 28 in the fourth quarter. Toronto went on a 62-43 run across 20 minutes.
It happens, what feels like, all at once. Many, including myself, go from thinking, "Okay, the Pacers are still in this," to, "This is over," in minutes. Counting the Phoenix game, where the Pacers' largest lead was smaller but their falloff just as rapid, it's happened in three-straight outings.
The Pacers can't let this pattern take hold of their season in the same manner. For seven games, the Pacers were just regular bad. Sure, they were 1-6, but those six losses included two that came off of shots at the buzzer (Aaron Nesmith missing in Dallas, Giannis Antetokounmpo scoring in Indianapolis) plus a four-point loss to the Timberwolves and a double-overtime defeat versus the Thunder. The gap between 1-6 and, say, 4-3, was very small for a banged-up team. At that moment in time, it felt like the Pacers were being pulled gradually away from a season they hoped was possible.
In game eight, the Pacers lost at home to the Nets. It was Brooklyn's first win of the season and a painful defeat for the Pacers. Since that game, the Pacers have lost five in a row by a combined 125 points. It's among the 50 worst stretches of five games in NBA history.
How suddenly their start became a crisis. Now, sitting at their worst record through 13 games in franchise history, the Pacers must find something. Even if it isn't results, more competitive games or developmental silver linings need to show up for a team that is having a season slip away.
Injury and transactional notes after another loss? That's been... basically every postgame story this season. Let's do it again.
Bennedict Mathurin - Questionable (right great toe sprain)
That is Bennedict Mathurin's official injury designation for Pacers vs Pistons tonight in Detroit. That does not mean a return today is guaranteed, but an upgrade in status is good news for the Pacers. Mathurin was ballin' in his first two appearances this season, and he'll provide a boost to a currently offensively-challenged team once he does return.
And, perhaps more importantly with the team now 1-12, they can finally get eyes on Mathurin both A) in general and B) with other starters this season. Learning more about the free agent to-be and his development in year four is a critical goal for the franchise.
I missed the Raptors game to attend a wedding – hence the dateline – but my good friend Dustin Dopirak (who truly has been carrying this website of late since I've missed five games in a row myself) shared that Rick Carlisle told reporters pregame that Mathurin is "getting close" to a return. That is, overall, excellent news for the blue and gold.
No more Cody Martin
Mathurin's absence made signing Cody Martin to a hardship contract possible, so Mathurin's soon-coming return means that once Martin's deal ended after November 14, the Pacers weren't immediately eligible for another hardship deal.
That meant Martin's time with the Pacers was up. He wasn't on the roster for Pacers-Raptors and is a free agent. He averaged 1.8 points and 3.5 rebounds per game in four appearances.
When I shared that Martin was a free agent, Dopirak confirmed and shared that the Pacers aren't currently eligible for a hardship exception. That, as I touched on here, confirmed a Mathurin return is coming soon.
While the Pacers have seven players on the injury report right now, only four are contributing to their eligibility for a hardship contract. Mathurin is questionable, and once he returns he obviously is not a factor in a possible hardship deal. Two-way players don't count, so Quenton Jackson isn't giving the Pacers a path toward more resources. And Aaron Nesmith (more coming on him) hasn't missed three-straight games yet. That means only Tyrese Haliburton, Obi Toppin, Kam Jones, and Johnny Furphy are responsible for the Pacers signing of Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, which I reported here.
Once Nesmith misses Wednesday's game against Charlotte, it is possible that the Pacers are eligible for an extra hardship exception. This is, as always, something to monitor as it impacts the Pacers roster and is the easiest way to track player timelines this season. Good grief.
Aaron Nesmith avoids worst-case scenario
The Nesmith injury in Phoenix looked scary, and some feared the worst. Fortunately for the Pacers, it's a knee sprain and not anything more damaging. Carlisle explained that it's likely going to be at least four weeks, so about a month, without the starting wing available. That hurts the Pacers but is good news generally.
The head coach added that Nesmith is not in a brace and is walking. A sigh of relief for the team. I wrote about this in more detail for a̶n̶ ̶i̶n̶j̶u̶r̶y̶ ̶b̶l̶o̶g̶ Forbes over the weekend. I also, as I wrote after the game in Phoenix, believe that Jarace Walker should continue to start with Nesmith out despite his struggles.
It at least gives the Pacers a development story to keep an eye on while their season gradually, or perhaps suddenly, slips away.
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